This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments.
Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts.
Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts.
Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Book)| Luis C. Dias (Author, Editor), Alec Morton (Author, Editor), John Quigley (Author, Editor)| Springer
Table of Contents
Chapter 1. Elicitation: State of the Art and Science
Chapter 2. Elicitation in the Classical Model
Chapter 3. Validation in the Classical Model
Chapter 4. SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework
Chapter 5. IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification
Chapter 6. Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective
Chapter 7. A Methodology for Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with Data
Chapter 8. Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Ju
Chapter 9. Combining Judgements from Correlated Experts
Chapter 10. Utility Elicitation
Chapter 11. Elicitation in Target-Oriented Utility
Chapter 12. Multiattribute Value Elicitation
Chapter 13. Disaggregation Approach to Value Elicitation
Chapter 14. Eliciting Multi-Criteria Preferences: ELECTRE Models
Chapter 15. Individual and Group Biases in Value and Uncertainty Judgments
Chapter 16. The Selection of Experts for (Probabilistic) Expert Knowledge Elicitation
Chapter 17. Eliciting Probabilistic Judgements for Integrating Decision Support Systems
Chapter 18. Expert Elicitation to Inform Health Technology Assessment
Chapter 19. Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US
Chapter 20. Risk Assessment Using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System
Chapter 21. Group Decision Support for Crop Planning: A Case Study to Guide the Process of Preferences Elicit
References
LINK FOR THE BOOK