Explanation: The Delphi Method is a structured and collaborative approach to estimating, which involves obtaining inputs from multiple experts anonymously and iteratively. It is commonly used in project management and decision-making processes. Here are the top 10 facts about the Delphi Method of estimation:
Expert Opinion: The Delphi Method relies on expert opinion and judgment to estimate project parameters such as effort, duration, or cost. Experts can be internal or external stakeholders with relevant knowledge and experience in the project domain.
Anonymity: The Delphi Method ensures anonymity of the experts providing estimates. Experts submit their estimates independently without knowing the identity of other experts, which minimizes biases and influences from group dynamics.
Iterative Process: The Delphi Method involves multiple rounds of estimations and feedback. Experts provide their initial estimates, and the facilitator summarizes and shares the results with the experts. Experts then revise their estimates based on the feedback received, and the process continues until a consensus or convergence is reached.
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Facilitator: A facilitator manages the Delphi Method process, including collecting, summarizing, and sharing the estimates and feedback with the experts. The facilitator ensures that the process is conducted objectively and without bias.
Feedback and Consensus: The Delphi Method encourages experts to provide feedback on their estimates and the estimates of others. This iterative feedback process helps in refining the estimates and reaching a consensus or convergence on the most likely estimate.
Reduction of Bias: The Delphi Method helps in reducing biases such as anchoring, groupthink, or confirmation bias, which can influence estimations in traditional group settings. Anonymity and independent estimates from experts help in obtaining more objective and unbiased estimates.
Flexibility: The Delphi Method is a flexible estimation technique that can be adapted to different project scenarios, sizes, and complexities. It can be used in various domains, including technology, healthcare, finance, and more.
Wide Range of Applications: The Delphi Method can be used for various estimation purposes, such as estimating effort, duration, cost, risks, resources, or other project parameters. It can also be used in decision-making processes, such as evaluating alternative options or scenarios.
Time-Efficient: The Delphi Method can be a time-efficient estimation technique compared to traditional group-based estimation techniques, as it eliminates the need for face-to-face meetings and allows experts to provide estimates at their own convenience.
Uncertainty Management: The Delphi Method allows for managing uncertainty in estimations by obtaining inputs from multiple experts and incorporating their opinions. This helps in capturing different perspectives and considering uncertainties in project estimations.
In conclusion, the Delphi Method is a structured and collaborative approach to estimation that involves obtaining anonymous inputs from multiple experts iteratively. It can help in reducing biases, managing uncertainty, and reaching a consensus or convergence on project estimates.
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